In March of this year, I wrote a blog titled: Dear Southwest: Grab Your Bag of Fiction; It’s On. This widely-read piece was about Southwest’s role in the proposed US Airways – Delta slot swap transaction. “If Southwest wants to gain entry to the few remaining slot controlled airports,” I wrote at the time, “Then it should make the incumbents an offer – one that provides the slot holder a return on that carrier’s prior investment.”
Well today, Southwest announced an investment – a $1.4 billion investment – in purchasing AirTran Airways, lock, stock and landing slots. And that is what I was pining for in that post. That is, I believe Southwest should pay, not get something for free or at some rock bottom price for assets the incumbents paid dearly for over the years. With AirTran come slots at New York’s LaGuardia and Washington’s Reagan National Airports. Along with slots, Southwest gains meaningful entry into the one remaining legacy carrier hub where it offers no service – Atlanta. It also gains entry into Charlotte, a US Airways hub.
Should Delta at Atlanta and US Airways at Charlotte be concerned with this transaction? No, and there are a number of reasons why not. First and foremost, the network carriers already compete with the low cost sector for nearly 85 percent of their domestic revenues. Whereas AirTran serves 37 markets that Southwest does not serve, some of them smaller, there will be some new competition for passengers in those markets. But for the most part, those cities already enjoy the low fares delivered via AirTran’s initial entry. A second consideration is that while Delta and US Airways depend on local traffic at Atlanta and Charlotte, each are major connecting complexes and are not solely reliant on originating passengers.
If you ask me, the losers in this announcement are not the network carriers but rather Frontier and Spirit. jetBlue will survive just fine. But Frontier is now confined to one [maybe two] traffic base for all intents and purposes. And that makes them vulnerable. As for Spirit, which just announced its intentions to launch a $300 million Initial Public Offering, it is one thing to have a highly fragmented market competing inside their network. It is a totally different animal to have Southwest and AirTran focused on carrying traffic to the Caribbean. The investment thesis necessary to market the IPO just got tougher.
Southwest Needs A New Reference
In its press release Southwest said: “Based on an economic analysis by Campbell-Hill Aviation Group, LLP*, Southwest Airlines’ more expansive low-fare service at Atlanta, alone, has the potential to stimulate over two million new passengers and over $200 million in consumer savings, annually. These savings would be created from the new low-fare competition that Southwest Airlines would be able to provide as a result of the acquisition, expanding the well-known “Southwest Effect’” of reducing fares and stimulating new passenger traffic wherever it flies.”
So where is the “Southwest Effect” in Akron-Canton? AirTran serves the market and Southwest serves Cleveland up the road. There should be significant stimulation in that market area? And in Dayton and Columbus, OH? Perhaps Southwest is looking far back to a 1993 study. Ding: the “Southwest Effect” as we knew it is dead. The truth is today’s stimulation is largely diversion from another market or another carrier. Fares may still be reduced in certain AirTran markets where the network carriers rely mostly on regional jets, but some markets will more than likely just recapture certain traffic from an airport in the catchment area that offered better fares to a unique geography.
Some have questioned whether the acquisition will lead to labor troubles down the road. But one thing is for sure: If I was an AirTran employee the first words out of my mouth upon hearing the news would be: “Ding, cha-ching!” Like employees at United who are looking forward to enjoying the feel of a new culture, one can be sure that the AirTran employees feel much the same. For them it is an opportunity to join one of the most admired and beloved companies, not just in the airline industry, but in the entire country
There will need to be union representation elections as a result of the merger as pilots and flight attendants are represented by different unions at each airline. But it’s hard to imagine any vote going the way of the AirTran unions. The main difficulty then becomes seniority list integration. Southwest CEO Gary Kelly told investors that “equitable and fair” will rule the integration process. That sounds like the words in the Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protective Provisions and should be music to the ears of AirTran employees. The question is whether each union will have it’s own definition of what is equitable and fair. That was the case in Southwest’s most recent acquisition attempt, when the Southwest Airlines Pilots’ Association could not find a formula to integrate Frontier Airlines pilots – and the deal failed.
The integration process has evolved over the years since the Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protective Provisions were enacted. Over that time, there have been more failures than successes in adopting fairness and equity. But it is incumbent for Southwest labor and management leadership to ensure that career expectations are met for all employees. Simply put, this concept means that the relative seniority in a combined list is not significantly different for any respective employee than it would be in their respective entity today.
Southwest will celebrate its 40th birthday next year. It is a mature and maturing carrier operating in a mature domestic environment where it is no longer THE innovator. What I find most interesting in Southwest’s potential bid for AirTran is that the carrier is being forced to act just like the network legacy carriers in seeking a consolidation scenario that would lead to an improved revenue line systemwide.
Let’s give credit where credit is due. Southwest put its money where its route system was weakest and made a very smart acquisition -- one that recognizes that two carriers will accomplish more together than either carrier could on its own. The two carriers offer a combined network with minimal overlap that ensures that new revenue synergies will be generated. With the deal there also will be new international opportunities derived for Southwest’s loyal passenger base. Multiple fleet types are not an issue as the smaller airframe will allow Southwest to serve some smaller communities.
But I can’t wait to hear the arguments Southwest uses in Washington to gain regulatory approval, particularly as it will be hard pressed to make the argument that acquiring AirTran would further lower airfares in the US domestic marketplace. After all, Southwest is not the only airline offering low fares, no matter what its boosters in Washington may think.
To make its case, the little ol’ Texas carrier that flies only to secondary markets will probably use the very same arguments to gain approval as did Delta/Northwest and United/Continental used. Interesting indeed.